Prediction Markets Shatter Records with $12B January Volume

Prediction markets surged to unprecedented levels in January, with total volume hitting $12 billion. Fee generation mirrored the activity, surpassing $11 million in on-chain transactions. Opinion led the charge with $6.14 million in fees, while Polymarket contributed $2.62 million. Bets spanned political events, sports outcomes, and other real-world scenarios.

Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the landscape. Kalshi's seven-day average volume reached $137 million, with a 128.63% quarter-over-quarter jump. It holds 28.10% market share over seven days and maintains a 32% volume-to-open-interest ratio—a critical metric for traders. Polymarket followed closely, posting a $129.16 million seven-day average and a 162.49% quarterly increase. Its market share stood at 26.49% over the same period.

The sector's growth reflects deepening liquidity and institutional interest. Open interest totals $428.18 million for Kalshi and $405.85 million for Polymarket, signaling robust participation. The volume-to-open-interest ratios—31.83% for Polymarket—underscore efficient capital deployment.